accelerating change

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Toledo tree (image by J. Lozano, CC 2.0 licensed)

According to John Lushetsky, program manager of the U.S., it's a very big project:

To go from the 1 gigawatt of generation capacity that we have now [in the United States] to the 170 to 200 gigawatts called for by 2030 amounts to a 26 percent compounded annual growth rate over the next 20 years. That's a higher sustained growth rate than any industry has ever been asked to do before

This was at a presentation Lushetsky gave in Toledo Ohio two weeks ago, as part of a day-long conference on "Empowering Solar Energy in Ohio."

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Chocolate-covered Oreo Cake

Cake for our six month anniversary (image by ginnerobot, CC 2.0 license)

In honor of this blog's six month anniversary, I'm going to relink to some of my favorite posts from the past:

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Top Fivewoodleywonderworks

Top Five Stories

August was a great month for energy storage breakthroughs! In addition, a big talking head talks big, and a business-of-green-energy announcement make my list of top stories.

1. Hydrogen from water
2. Fuel cell breakthrough #1: cheap catalyst
3. Fuel cell breakthrough #2: better cathode
4. Al Gore's call to action: The U.S. should "produce all electricity from carbon-free sources by 2018." (Actually from late July, but my blog didn't start until August!)
5. Green energy investment up 60% YoY in 2007, on target for 60% YoY growth in 2008

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Wicked Barrel, by batintherain (Creative Commons license)

Wicked Barrel, by batintherain (Creative Commons license)

My very basic analysis of Al Gore's call to action for "100% carbon free electricity" yesterday had the virtue of being dead simple. Jerome a Paris of The Oil Drum did a more detailed analysis back in July, based on wind energy generation, that reaches a similar conclusion to mine:

The short answer is: while 100% is probably unrealistic, it's not unreasonable to expect to be able to get pretty close to that number (say, in the 50-90% range) in that timeframe, and it is very likely that it makes a LOT of sense economically.

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Artists conception - Manhattan covered with solar cells

Artist's conception - Manhattan covered with solar cells. If Walmart covers all its roofs with solar cells, they'll cover an area equal to Manhattan

The New York Times has a story today about the big box stores rushing to get solar cells on their roofs before a Federal tax break expires at the end of December. The article's analysis is that they are primarily doing it for PR purposes, since PV-based energy is still a lot more expensive than conventional. The benefits of being able to say they are green are compelling. But the companies put a slightly different spin on it:

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According to this analysis from Clean Edge, (which I saw originally in the San Jose Mercury News, Solar energy cost may rival other forms soon, study says - SiliconValley.com):

Solar energy will cost the same as power produced by coal, natural gas and nuclear plants in about a decade, a report released Tuesday suggests. By then, the price parity could propel solar adoption so that it accounts for 10 percent of U.S. electricity generation by 2025

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