A cliff in Bali (image by seanmcgrath, CC 2.0 licensed)
My green building and blogging colleague Barry Katz just had a post about James Howard Kunstler on his The Future Is Green Blog. Kunstler is one of the "dystopians" featured in a New Yorker article last week. Kunstler is not sanguine about what the future is going to look like for us and our descendants. He thinks that not only is global warming likely to cause a disaster, but so is the current, or an upcoming, financial meltdown. Barry writes:
In his view, anything short of ending our dependence on cars for personal transportation is a doomed enterprise.
I've been skeptical of the "stimulus" as sketched out so far, aimed at refurbishing the infrastructure of Happy Motoring. To me, this is the epitome of a campaign to sustain the unsustainable -- since car-dependency is absolutely the last thing we need to shore up and promote.
Could the terrible things he predicts happen? In the New Yorker interview he provides as an example and a warning the famous fall of the Roman Empire - the city of Rome itself went from a population of over one million in 100 AD to less than 50,000 in a little over 400 years. And there certainly have been many other similar collapses in history - even in pre-Columbian North America there were multiple population collapses due to resource overuse (and genocide, but that's another topic).
The difference today - at least we hope - is that we have some Cassandras - Al Gore, Kunstler, the IPCC, me and Barry Katz, among many others - warning us, and we have the means and opportunity to take the warning. The question is, do we have the will to put the pedal to the metal to address the problems? For me, I see that as doing the following, and doing it much faster than anyone is actually predicting is possible today:
Immediately stop wasting energy - this means getting our houses and commercial buildings more efficient, both new and existing ones; getting more efficient cars on the road
Build out utility scale renewable energy as fast as humanly possible
Develop and commercialize technologies for distributed energy generation (e.g., photovoltaic roof panels and paint, mini-wind turbines, ground source heat pumps) and get them cheap enough to deploy everywhere
Develop and commercialize technologies for distributed energy storage - effective energy storage is one of the key sticking points for my vision of zero net energy homes and for accelerating the decline of traditional power plants
Figure out a way, or several ways, to get some of the CO2 back out of the atmosphere - reforestation is a start (and can make a significant difference, according to this study)
Finally, make structural changes to the rules and incentives of life so people will work closer to where they live, will be able to take public transit in a reasonable way, choose to build highly efficient homes not because its the right thing to do, but because it's the law, or there are other concrete benefits, and so that businesses will find it's profitable to save the world - whether it's through being more efficient themselves, or by helping the rest of us "do the right thing"
I call this blog "Keeping The Lights On" because I am optimistic that we'll figure out how to have a decent life without CO2, that we'll figure out how to keep the oceans from rising too much and losing too many species, and that civilization won't collapse due to a financial crisis in the meantime. There are a lot of hurdles to be leapt to accomplish this, and many of them will be costly - but that means that someone's going to make some money on them, so there will be incentives. And that's the other half of the title - "Profitable Applications" - business can drive this transition, for profit. The big challenge is getting business ramped up fast enough to save our butts - I think it can happen, and even with the economy in its current sad state, we're still seeing hopeful signs.
Well, that's a couple of pages full of assertion and conjecture - I'd love to hear your thinking on this.