Comments on: Some Experts Say “Moore’s Law Does Not Apply To Solar PV” – Kurzweil (and Page) Disagree

By: AGW Headlines

AGW Headlines — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:15:08 +0000

[...] let me balance this out with a rosy picture of the future. Ray Kurzweil thinks he has identified an exponential growth trend in solar power production. He predicts that if this trend continues we will be able to satisfy all our electricity needs with [...]

By: nils

nils — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 01:03:34 +0000

Bryan – thanks for supplying these numbers – it looks pretty good for solar PV, doesn’t it?

By: Bryan Berndt

Bryan Berndt — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:36:46 +0000

http://www.maybememe.com/post/91127514/could-renewables-supply-40-percent-of-global-power-by

By: Bryan Berndt

Bryan Berndt — Thu, 27 Aug 2009 00:35:59 +0000

Cost per 1W of solar panels

1970 $100.00
1980 $28.50
1990 $8.50
2000 $3.00
2010 $1.00 (equivalent to CONG retail electricity)
2020 $0.30 (cheaper than CONG wholesale electricity; these version 2.0 technologies are already visible)
2030 $0.10
2040 $0.03
2050 $0.01

# Solar’s price drops at least Three-fold every decade, and has been doing so since 1970, ie. For 40 years!

# This year solar power reached parity with grid-delivered retail electricity to residential and commercial users if produced on large-scales, ie not just on your family’s roof, where it costs twice as much.

# By or before 2020, Solar will be as cheap as or cheaper than Coal, Oil, Nuclear, or natural Gas (King CONG), even at point of production utility grade wholesale electricity

# Solar’s worldwide growth rate of installation last year was 92%; it has consistently exceeded a 45% annual growth rate for a decade

# At that growth rate, and with the continuing plummeting of the price of solar panels, Solar power will produce < 400% of today’s Global Power by 2050
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